Pound Sterling (GBP)
Sterling has dropped heavily against peers today, following remarks from European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker.
Juncker has confirmed that the UK will have to pay a bill when it leaves the EU, estimated to stretch to tens of billions of Pounds.
The first major Pound movement next week is due on Wednesday, when Article 50 is triggered. This will start to officially cut UK-EU ties, so the Pound is forecast to slump when the announcement comes.
Following forecast-beating PMI figures, the Euro has rallied against peers today. Predictions had been for slowing activity, but the actual figures have revealed accelerating growth in all German and Eurozone fields.
The Euro may be able to rise further on today’s French unemployment benefit claims results if they show falling claim counts. Otherwise, the next major Euro shift is set to come on Monday when pessimistically-predicted German confidence data is due.
US Dollar (USD)
The US Dollar has made marginal gains against the Pound but has dropped against the Euro, following an unexpected delay in voting on a key Trump policy.
A previously-expected vote on the Affordable Healthcare Act (ACA) replacement, dubbed ‘Trumpcare’, has been moved and will now take place today instead of Thursday.
This is due to low confidence that the bill will be passed; the delay implies a final rally to try and obtain enough votes for approval.
If the bill is rejected today then the US Dollar may slide, as it could mean that future Trump policies, such as his plans to increase fiscal stimulus by US$1 trillion could also be blocked.
More immediate US Dollar movement may come from today’s durable goods orders, which are forecast to slow from 1.8% to 1.2%.
This outcome may soften the US Dollar ahead of the vote, making a downtrend into the weekend a possibility.
Australian Dollar (AUD)
With direct Australian data being limited today, the Australian Dollar has fallen against peers following analysis of a recent government proposal.
The plan has been to potentially further regulate foreign investment in Australia, which has been labelled by some as a potential ‘economic disaster’.
The next domestic data likely to move the Australian Dollar will be the coming Thursday’s HIA new home sales figure.
New Zealand Dollar (NZD)
The New Zealand Dollar has fallen across the board today after February’s trade balance missed forecasts.
The figure was expected to rise from -257m to 160m, but ultimately printed a disappointing -18m.
With no NZ data out in the near-term, the US Dollar may have the next influence on the New Zealand Dollar.
If US goods orders slow as expected today, the US Dollar could be weakened, which would raise NZD demand as a result.
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
While Canada’s budget balance returned to a surplus yesterday, the Canadian Dollar has failed to capitalise on the news. A minor gain has come against the Pound, but otherwise losses have been seen against the Euro and US Dollar.
The CAD could rally if today’s inflation rate figures exceed forecasts, although present predictions are for an annual reprint and monthly drop from 0.9% to 0.2%.