Pound Sterling (GBP)
While the Pound has shed many of the dramatic gains seen during Thursday afternoon, Sterling has still been an in-demand currency, owing to continued optimism spilling over into Friday.
The day’s domestic data has matched with forecasts, with the November construction PMI rising from 52.6 to 52.8.
Previously, the Pound was in extremely high demand, due to the joint boost from plans to pay for single market access and poor US claims stats raising demand for Sterling.
The next notable UK data will be released on Monday, covering the November services PMI. At present, this is forecast to rise slightly from 54.5 to 54.7.
In the calm before a pair of key European votes on December 4th, the Euro has been trading poorly, either remaining flat against peers or dropping on account of mounting investor anxiety.
The day’s only major piece of Eurozone data, the Spanish November unemployment change, has shown a rise instead of the predicted fall, which sets the Euro up poorly going into the weekend.
The votes in question concern an Italian Referendum and the Austrian Presidential Election; the election is too close to call, but a forecast ‘No’ vote in the Referendum is expected to see Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi ousted from power, which could destabilise the Euro heavily going into next week.
US Dollar (USD)
Interest in the US Dollar has dipped today on account of the latest promises made by President-Elect Donald Trump.
While US November manufacturing PMIs came out positively on Thursday, the latest comments from Trump have raised concerns of his campaign persona coming to light again.
While on his ‘Thank You’ tour of some US states, Trump declared that there would be ‘consequences’ if companies tried to leave the US, such as taxing them heavily and possibly imposing other financial penalties as well.
This tone is highly similar to Trump’s sensationalist headline-grabbing comments when he was campaigning, and may well indicate that the impulsive, brash Trump is back after a period of relative post-election restraint.
The afternoon will bring the November non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate stats. Unemployment is expected to remain at 4.9%, while a rise in the payrolls figure of 180k is forecast.
Australian Dollar (AUD)
The cost of iron ore, a nationally important Australian commodity, has proved incredibly fickle of late, with the general pattern being a rise in price one day and a drop the next.
This has done little to inspire long-term confidence in the resource or the Australian Dollar, which is part of the reason for the tight movements witnessed by AUD today.
Additionally, the October retail sales figure released earlier on has shown a drop on the month, though not by as much as expected.
The next Australian data to watch out for will arrive on Sunday night-AIG services index for November. This is expected to fall from 50.5 to 49.49.
New Zealand Dollar (NZD)
Demand for the New Zealand Dollar has dropped off today in the wake of new requirements from China’s Food and Drug Administration (FDA).
These concern the importing of baby formula milk, and have likely thrown New Zealand exporters into a state of disarray due to the large scale milk trading relationship between New Zealand and China.
The next direct NZ data is due on the coming Monday, and will cover the number of building permits recorded in October. In an optimistic forecast, the quantity of approved permits is expected to rise from 0.2% to 0.9%.
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
On the last day of trading this week the Canadian Dollar has experienced little movement.
The source of this drop in demand has likely been gross profit-taking in the wake of oil price-based highs, which stemmed from Wednesday’s eventual OPEC agreement to cut oil production.
In domestic news, Thursday’s RBC manufacturing PMI for November rose from 51.1 to 51.5; this was lower than had been expected for the result.
This afternoon’s key Eurozone data will consist of the November employment change and unemployment rate results, which are presently expected to see a drop of -3.4k persons and stagnation at 7%, respectively.