Pound Sterling (GBP)
While the only UK data today has shown a rise in new car registrations in January, the Pound has still managed to rise against the Euro. Sterling has recorded a minor loss against the US Dollar, however.
The day’s major non-data event will be another Commons debate about the Article 50 bill; having been provisionally approved last week, the bill could be amended today and tomorrow before another vote on Wednesday.
Euro demand has been relatively limited this morning, coming after a mix of German economic data over December and January.
Although the monthly factory orders in December rose from -3.6% to 5.2%, January’s construction PMI dropped from 54.9 to 52 points.
This lack of confidence in the Euro comes ahead of the afternoon’s key Eurozone news, which will be European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi testifying to the European Parliament Economic and Monetary Affairs committee.
Draghi is expected to face some opposition from German MEPs, who could call for a reduction in quantitative easing now that Eurozone inflation is on the rise.
US Dollar (USD)
The US Dollar crashed at the start of last week due to a Trump executive order banning travel to the US from a number of Middle Eastern and African countries.
A week later, however, the USD has opened trading in a strong position against the Pound and Euro thanks to the ban being lifted by the ruling of a federal judge.
This has raised hopes that further controversial Trump orders and policies might not make the final cut, which in turn could lead to a more stable US economic situation in the future.
US economic announcements due today will focus on the Fed labour market conditions index for January, as well as a speech from Fed official Patrick Harker.
The Fed announcement is expected to offer a health check on US economic conditions.
Australian Dollar (AUD)
Australian economic data ultimately proved unsupportive for the Australian Dollar.
Although job advertisements in January rose by 4%, the more impactful retail sales figure for December dropped from 0.1% to -0.1%.
The next major Australian news will be Tuesday morning’s Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision, which is currently expected to see no change at 1.5%.
New Zealand Dollar (NZD)
The New Zealand Dollar has managed to advance against the Euro, Pound and US Dollar by considerable amounts today following the news that Prime Minister Bill English has had a more productive conversation with Donald Trump than his Australian counterpart.
English described the conversation as cordial, which has at the very least raised hopes that New Zealand might enjoy a better political and economic relationship with the US than Australia following Malcolm Turnbull’s apparently terse recent conversation with Trump.
The first NZ news this week will be Tuesday afternoon’s Global Dairy Trade price index, which previously rose by 0.6%.
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
With crude oil costs ticking up recently, the Canadian Dollar has managed to climb against the Pound, Euro and US Dollar.
The first direct Canadian data of the week is expected on Tuesday afternoon, when the high-impact trade balance result for December is due. This is presently predicted to show a damaging surplus reduction, from 0.53bn to 0.25bn.
Additional CAD movement could come from the Ivey PMI for January, as well as December building permits results. In the latter case, a worsening from -0.1% to -4% is forecast.