Pound Sterling (GBP)
The Pound has dropped by -0.4% against the Euro and US Dollar today, but still remains close to the best rates since late February and late March respectively.
On the positive side, recent current account data saw the deficit more than half, which put the UK a step closer to being a net lender compared to a borrower.
More recently, Pound demand has been slightly reduced by March’s manufacturing PMI, which unexpectedly slowed.
PMIs will factor into Pound movement this week, with construction on Tuesday and services on Wednesday. The former figure is expected to remain unchanged but the Pound could rally if the services figure rises as forecast.
Following the news that Eurozone unemployment dropped in February, the Euro climbed against the Pound and made minor gains against the US Dollar.
In addition to unemployment dropping from 9.6% to 9.5%, the Euro also appreciated after the Eurozone manufacturing PMI rose from 55.4 to 56.2.
Retail sales will be the next source of EUR movement, with growth forecast for February. If figures match or exceed these predictions, the Euro could rally across the board on Tuesday.
US Dollar (USD)
Ahead of major US manufacturing data, the US Dollar has been close against the Euro and risen against the Pound.
This comes after the latest Trump controversy – under a storm of allegations about Russian involvement in 2016’s election, President Trump himself sparked off new concerns by declaring that the US would ‘solve’ the problem of North Korean militarisation and nuclear armament.
Today’s USD shifts are expected on manufacturing PMI and order figures for March, along with speeches from two Fed officials.
For March’s manufacturing PMI, a slight decline is predicted from 57.7 to 57; this may not be enough to dent confidence in the USD, however.
Australian Dollar (AUD)
With manufacturing and retail sales data dropping off today, the Australian Dollar has fallen across the board.
As well as the AiG manufacturing index dipping from 59.3 to 57.5, retail sales in February have turned negative with a drop of -0.1%.
The Australian Dollar could be in for further losses on Tuesday, when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delivers its April interest rate decision.
The RBA is expected to leave rates at 1.5%, but could still weaken the AUD if they offer a worsening economic outlook.
New Zealand Dollar (NZD)
The New Zealand Dollar has fallen against the Euro and US Dollar today but advanced against the Pound following a dip in business confidence.
More supportive has been a recent rise in global class three milk prices, up to $15.83 per hundredweight by April 3rd.
Incoming NZ data will also focus on confidence, covering business measures in Q1. The NZIER score previously rose 28% in Q4.
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
A series of consistent rises in crude oil prices have failed to provide lasting support for the Canadian Dollar today. Despite the cost of crude climbing from under $48 to almost $51 from March 27th to April 2nd, CAD has been tight against the Pound and has fallen against the Euro and US Dollar.
This week will bring key Canadian jobs data, which may trigger Canadian Dollar losses if unemployment rises as forecast.
Ahead of then, however, CAD stands to be moved by a manufacturing PMI today and trade balance figures on Tuesday. In the latter case, a potentially CAD-weakening surplus drop is predicted from 0.81bn to 0.64bn.